Limiting the increase in global temperatures to 1.5C could generate a 5% economic boost by 2100 compared to a 2C temperature rise, according to new research.

Writing in a journal published by The Royal Society, five academics from the University of Oxford created a new model to examine the economic impact of climate change.

“The projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries,” the paper said.

“The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth and national income levels is significant… with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.”

Economic damage even at 1.5C

Per capita GDP by 2100 is predicted to fall by 13% if temperatures rise by 2C.

If the rise is limited to 1.5C then the decrease is forecast to stand at 8%.

Commenting on the findings, Amir Jina – an assistant professor in public policy at the University of Chicago – told the Carbon Brief website: “We could state the result in a different way – that we think that if there are damages evident at even 1.5C, we should be taking that into consideration with urgency and exploring our mitigation options.”

> Read the paper